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Tesla Stock: China Registrations Fall But EV Giant Is On Pace For Record Sales

Tesla (TSLA) vehicle insurance registrations in China declined more than 10% sequentially last week as the company looks to at least match its prior best-ever quarterly deliveries as it targets a record-setting year. TSLA stock fell Tuesday.




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Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 15,400, down 12.5% from 17,600 prior week, according to data reported by CnEVPost. The numbers represent the sixth full week since Tesla’s revamped Model 3 hit the market in China. Currently the numbers are not broken down to show Model 3 vs. Model Y registrations.

Tesla aims to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. So far in Q4 Tesla China insurance registrations, a rough gauge for vehicle deliveries, total 119,900 for the quarter, up more than 7% compared with the same point in Q3. The number of China registrations through Q4 is also 8% higher than the same point in Q2 when Tesla delivered a record 156,676 vehicles in China.

Tesla would need to average 12,300 registrations per week for the remaining three weeks in Q4 to break its Q2 China deliveries record.

Tesla stock dropped 1.6% to 235.93 during Tuesday’s market action. On Monday, TSLA fell 1.7% to 239.74. In December, Tesla stock has angled 0.19% lower.

Model Y Sold Out Amid China EV Price War

Meanwhile on Friday, Tesla China announced it has sold out of the Model Y for 2023, apparently referring to the standard range trim of the vehicle. “Thank you for your dedication in 2023, on Tesla’s way to delivering 1.8 million cars globally,” the text of the poster reads.

TSLA has recently up its EV price war once more in China. The U.S.-based EV company raised prices on Model Y trims in China for five-straight weeks while also beginning to offer a $1,127 insurance subsidy for base-trim Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in inventory through year-end, local media reported. Tesla also is offering low-rate loans to spur demand.

Top competitor BYD (BYDDF) recently stepped up discounts on a range of models, as the China EV and battery giant aims to hit a sales target of 3 million EVs in 2023. Other China EV makers are rolling out new models at highly competitive prices.

Tesla Targets Record Q4

Tesla sold 82,432 China-made vehicles in November, up 14.3% from 72,115 in October, breaking two straight months of sequential declines in sales, according to data released Monday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). However, Tesla’s November sales total fell 17.8% from 100,291 in Nov. 2022. The data released by the CPCA Monday include exports.

Before Tesla delivered 12 Cybertrucks on Nov. 30, the EV company unveiled its new Model 3 in China on Sept. 1 with official sales beginning on Oct. 19. Tesla started delivering the “Highland” Model 3 on Oct. 26 in China, with European deliveries also underway. The global EV giant also launched a slightly updated Model Y in China earlier in October.

Through the end of Q3, Tesla delivered about 1.324 million vehicles globally for the year, meaning the company needs to deliver roughly 476,000 in Q4 to reach 1.8 million. That’s 2% more than its record 466,140 deliveries in the second quarter and a rebound from Q3’s 435,059. Tesla reiterated its 1.8 million vehicle delivery goal in its third-quarter earnings.

However, since Oct. 18, analyst projections have dropped. Wall Street consensus has Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2023 totaling 1.797 million, just below that 1.8 million target, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, Wall Street is currently expecting 473,000 deliveries in Q4.

Tesla is expected to report fourth-quarter deliveries in early January.

Tesla Stock Performance

TSLA shares sank after the company reported worse-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue on Oct. 18. However, The stock is building the right side of a double-bottom base giving it a 278.98 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. Aggressive investors could use the Nov. 29 high of 252.75 or a trendline just below 250 as early entries.

Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla stock has surged around 90%, broadly outperforming the broader S&P 500 index.

Tesla stock ranks fifth in the 35-stock IBD automaker industry group. The S&P 500 component has an 81 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has a 79 Relative Strength Rating and an 88 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X, formerly known as Twitter, @KitNorton for more coverage.

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